EPA
Expected points added per play, from nflverse play-by-play. Garbage time is left out, and every team is adjusted for the offenses and defenses it has faced, so a soft schedule doesn't inflate a rating. New to EPA? EPA Explained walks through every part of this page.
Head to head
Longer bar, better rank out of 32; the edge goes to the side ranking at least 6 spots better. Adjusted EPA / play strips out what each opponent was expected to allow or gain. Plays when the offense's win chance was under 10% or over 90% are left out, along with kneels and spikes. Early-down pass is EPA on 1st- and 2nd-down passes. For a defense, lower is better.
EPA line vs. the market
The EPA line is what the ratings alone say about each game. A big gap is not a bet: more often the market knows something the ratings can't see, such as a quarterback injury or the weather. Treat it as a game to look into.
EPA ratings, all 32 teams
Net is offense minus defense, in adjusted EPA per play. The shift columns show how many spots a unit moves once schedule and garbage time are accounted for. The flags list results likely to even out. Select a column heading to sort.
How the numbers are built
- Take every pass and run play this season from nflverse play-by-play, which carries EPA and success for each play.
- Drop garbage time (offense win chance under 10% or over 90%), kneels and spikes.
- Fit one regression across all plays so each team gets an offense rating and a defense rating, with opponent strength and home field separated out. Pass and run get their own fits.
- Project each game: each offense's rating plus the other defense's, times expected plays, plus 1.5 points for home field.
- Pull the projections well toward average, because a few weeks is a small sample and unregressed ratings miss badly.
Not included: quarterback injuries, weather, rest and travel, and last season's results.